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The current widespread murderous violence in Sri Lanka underscores beyond all doubt, the potency of ‘The agony of the stomach’ in the shaping of a country’s politics. The fact that economic hardship in the main led to the country wide anti-government protests in the first place over the past few months, bears this out fully. Material hardship was the trigger to the avalanche of opposition to the Gotabhaya Rajapaksa administration which later took on more markedly political dimensions.
At present, Sri Lanka is faced with the major challenge of cobbling together a broad-based government that will be firmly rooted in democratic institutions and values. It will need to do this in double quick time and revive its economy thereafter if it is to continue to figure as a notable democracy in South Asia.
This is because not all the current oppositional forces in the country are democratically-oriented. In this connection, it needs to be stressed that a high military presence in public, as is witnessed by Sri Lanka at the time of this writing, amounts to a considerable dilution of the country’s democratic credentials.
Time is of the essence and there is a dire need for Sri Lanka’s major democratic forces to enter into a constructive dialogue on how the country should move into the future, particularly with its democratic characteristics fully intact. The contentious issue of whether it would be doing this with or without President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa needs to be addressed urgently.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka would need to ensure maximum cordiality in its relations with its neighbours of the region. This is particularly so in the case of India. The fact is that India has come to the economic rescue of Sri Lanka in a major way and the latter is obliged to ensure that Lankan-based saboteurs are not permitted to undermine the ongoing cordiality between the countries.
Now as perhaps never before the pivotal importance of India in Sri Lanka’s regional policy has come to the fore and it is up to Sri Lanka’s decision-makers to initiate policy parameters that would adequately complement India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ principle. For example, in continuing its ties with extra-regional powers, Sri Lanka is obliged to respect India’s security sensitivities in particular. The bald fact is that besides being South Asia’s number one power, India is Sri Lanka’s closest and hitherto most helpful neighbour and Sri Lanka would be acting against its best regional interests by forgetting this reality.
At the time of writing the Indian authorities have scotched rumours to the effect that the Indian centre intends sending its armed forces to Sri Lanka to protect its interests here and this is a vital stitch in time that would ensure continued cordiality in bilateral relations. It ought to be plain to see that it would not be in India’s interests to even ponder such a move, considering its possible harmful consequences in a number of areas of concern.
A principal task in the area of foreign policy for Sri Lanka is for it to continue with its policy of non-alignment while not relating with excessive partiality to states in the region and outside it. Thus, China too has proved to be of immense help to Sri Lanka and the latter would need to relate to China cordially while maintaining the same degree of amicability in its ties with China’s competitors for power and influence in the region and in the world.
Going forward, Sri Lanka would need to bear in mind that China is likely to step-up its efforts at increasing its power and influence in South Asia in response to domestic political compulsions. Right now, President Xi Jinping is aiming at a third five-year term in power and he is likely to initiate some aggressive policy moves in South Asia to enhance his popularity at home.
For instance, he could opt to project China as a foremost power in South Asia as well and unless small states such as Sri Lanka think and act perceptively, they might conduct themselves in ways towards China that would have India worried. But it would be in the best interests of these small states to maintain an equal distance between India and China.
The specific challenge before small states of this region is to accept well-intended gestures of friendship from their neighbours and extra-regional powers while maintaining a policy of non-alignment. Right now, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan are the worst-off countries in the region in an economic sense and they would do well to accept the largesse of the region and that of the wider world in a spirit of cordiality.
However, when a degree of economic wellbeing is made to return to these countries they would do well to team-up with the rest of SAARC to work in earnest to bring about a measure of economic development region-wide. This is the key to peace and stability domestically and internationally.
However, development is a complex process that involves a substantial change in power relations within countries and internationally. The questions of social inequality and corruption help to focus on some of these complexities. In the case of Sri Lanka, broadly speaking, we have been having parasitic power elites from the time of ‘independence’ which have been veritably preying on the wealth of the land through the perpetuation of corrupt practices that have rendered development impossible.
Largely, while the same goes for Afghanistan, her development issues have been compounded by the fact that she is also up against institutionalized discrimination against women and some minorities. It goes without saying that the disempowerment of women contributes towards economic underdevelopment, considering that women are pivotal to economic growth.
Accordingly, the initiation of economic development is a complex, multi-dimensional process. It involves, among other factors, the bringing about of drastic changes in power relations at the domestic level. Essentially, economic underdogs and underprivileged sections have to be empowered and a country’s wealth distributed with a measure of equality. Concurrently, the wealth gap among countries needs to be narrowed and this task regional organizations such as SAARC need to shoulder in earnest.
The economic, social and political explosion in Sri Lanka drives home the point that a country could ignore ‘the agony of the stomach’ only at its peril. The time to act on it is now.
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When history is written, it must not be said that the greatest achievement of the Aragalaya was to make Ranil Wickremesinghe, an unelected MP and leader of the UNP which was rejected utterly by the people, the Prime Minister for the 6th time.Of course, the Aragalaya got rid of Mahinda Rajapaksa, but he was succeeded by Ranil Wickremesinghe. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.That cannot be the final outcome, the last word, on the Aragalaya. There must be some victory which is in accordance with the values, demands and ideals of the Aragalaya. The Aragalaya is the best thing that happened to us, the best thing we did as a country certainly since the war ended in victory. If the war was won, thanks to the Rajapaksas and Sarath Fonseka, peace was lost also, thanks to the Rajapaksas. We had hit rock bottom when the Aragalaya resurrected us as a country; a people a society.If the Aragalaya loses its way or worse still dissipates, we would have lost the best of ourselves, as a society.Therefore, with the Aragalaya now at a crossroads, a course correction is needed.
Every course correction starts with an honest audit or a self-criticism as the left calls it, though the Lankan left hardly ever engages in a sincere one.The Trap the Aragalaya Fell IntoIn the struggle to save the Gotabaya Presidency, a tactic was obviously devised by the deep State to divert the campaign to another target. The first was Basil Rajapaksa, the second was the Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Elements of the 11-party bloc fell for that and presented solutions which shifted the focus to the PM.From Gota’s Gotta Go, the struggle either was diverted to Mahinda or enlarged and therefore diluted to include the PM. When you enlarge a target to include a new element, you lose focus. Ask any sniper or simply any marksman.The Aragalaya fell into the trap and it was NOT on May 9th when MR’s thugs went on a rampage. It was earlier. Ironically the mistake was made by the most dedicated, heroic, indispensable detachment of the Aragalaya, the Inter-University Student’s Federation (IUSF) and its sincere leader Wasantha Mudalige.The IUSF staged a massive, impressive march to Galle Face Green. The Police placed roadblocks, including ones with spikes. As we saw at the conclusion of the march though, the Galle Road was open as the point of access. Having made some smart tactical moves and built-up considerable momentum and velocity, the IUSF march made a detour to Temple Trees and at one point tried to get past the barricades and shake the gates. Promising to return, the march triumphantly made it to Galle Face green, which it could have done without that detour.That night ‘MynahGoGama’ came up, which was cool. Mahinda Rajapaksa responded crudely with Pirith blaring and the rest of it. May 9th came afterwards.
By the detour, the struggle with the PM became the most dramatic. In terms of tactics and strategy, that detour was a deviation. It was to prove expensive. On May 9th the Aragalaya won that battle but damaged the war against the Gotabaya autocracy and the Rajapaksa oligarchy.The thing is, Gota and Mahinda together gave the picture of a Rajapaksa oligarchy, which was the reality. Re-targeting the struggle to Mahinda was exactly what the Gota camp wanted. Mahinda’s stupidity enabled Gota to dump him and activate the Rajapaksas’ Plan B: Ranil Wickremesinghe.It would be a naïve person to believe that Ranil’s return to Parliament was not as part of an agreement with Mahinda and with the blessings of Gota. Ranil was kept as UNP leader even by CBK as a safe reserve option.On May 9th-May 10th, the Rajapaksas activated Plan B and installed their ally Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister. That outcome is hardly an outstanding revolutionary victory. It is in fact a retro-move; in other words, it is historically a step backward.So, what about Sajith Premadasa and the SJB? I think that two mistakes were made, by both the Aragalaya and the SJB.Once Mahinda was pushed out, the Aragalaya should have insisted that the Opposition Leader take the Prime Ministership, because it would have been much better to have a quasi-ally of the Aragalaya as PM and dominating the Cabinet than having Ranil do so, and transitioning Gotabaya out by reformist ‘salami tactics’ such as the 19th Amendment, while protecting the people’s living standards in negotiations with the INF and creditors.
Instead, some elements in the Aragalaya (and I believe they have been identified as NOT being MR thugs, Police/military spies or Peratugamee/IUSF activists) initiated a mob attack on Sajith Premadasa.On the night of May 9th, the Aragalaya leaders made a second strategic mistake, that of silence. While it may be said that regime provocateurs were responsible for violence in the provinces, what was going on at Temple Trees was utterly transparent and could have been parametrically restrained. That is what leadership is about. As Lenin said, ‘any real communist must know how to start a strike as well as how to stop it’.
As for the SJB itself, it has to make an existential choice. It has to decide “Api Kavuruda”: whether it is a tough-minded, hard-charging Premadasist populist/social democratic party or a party dominated or influenced by liberals ( mainly liberal constitutional lawyers), most of whom were Ranil followers, bond scam foot-noters, Berghof Foundation products who supported Ranil’s CFA with Prabhakaran, assorted federalists, lawyers for Ranil in the Bond scam case and drafters of new Constitutions for Ranil going against the 1978 Presidential Constitution that their own fathers drafted.The SJB delayed by wasting time for weeks with a slogan of ‘abolition of the executive presidency’ which could not secure the SLFP’s support and was more of a load than the moment could bear.The SJB’s bad timing and slow intervention reminded me of the line of Carl Schmitt (whose formative background was Catholic, not evangelical) that “when faced with the choice ‘Jesus or Barabbas’, liberals appoint a committee!” His famous point was that liberalism, and especially liberal parliamentarism (devoid of a strong executive), was incapable of making a decision in crisis. The ‘decisionist’ critique of liberalism was proved by the SJB which delayed and miscalculated the actual balance of forces at a decisive moment.
So, what next for the Aragalaya? Slavoj Zizek wrote that “The Revolution Always Rings Twice”. It was a riff on the movie the Postman Always Rings Twice, and referred in this case to the Russian revolution of 1917 which actually witnessed TWO revolutions, in February and in October. Zizek’s point was that Lenin went against the tide and pushed through the second most decisive revolution within the year.Now the Aragalaya has not even won the February 1917 revolution i.e., the democratic revolution that ousted the Tsar of Russia. Instead, Tsar Gotabaya is still there, while he has a new PM. Therefore, there is no question of a second (this time, socialist) ‘October’ revolution. The democratic revolution must be brought to completion and crowned by the departure of Gotabaya. However, the Zizekian point about Lenin is valid in that there can and must be a Second Wave of the (democratic) Revolution to carry it through to completion and do so within this year.Here too, Zizek’s determined, resolute, hard-driving Lenin must be ‘read’ together with Georg Lukacs’ Lenin. Lukacs writes in 1924 of “Lenin’s realism, his Realpolitik…”
The Aragalaya must now have a three-point agenda UNDER, NOT INSTEAD OF the ‘Gota Go Home’ thematic slogan and intended as the concrete way to operationalize that slogan in the new conditions of Ranil’s PM-ship.:
1. Articulate a minimum economic programme to defend and restore the living standards of the people in the face of any attempt to impose the burden of economic crisis management and recovery on those who had nothing to do with starting the crisis. This programme must commence with the immediate restoration of the fertiliser subsidy.
2. Convene a roundtable conversation of all Aragalaya and Opposition forces and draft an Aragalaya+ Opposition Consensus platform. It requires a broad Church or Big Tent inclusionary approach such as the conventions that Sub-Comandante Marcos and the Zapatistas had in liberated Chiapas and the Sau Paulo Forum initiated by Lula as Mayor. My strong suggestion is do not go for the abolition of the executive presidency. It can easily be defeated at a referendum by showing that the executive presidency is indispensable in economic crisis, and anyway, the military may react against it.
3. Focus on an irresistible campaign for Parliamentary, Presidential elections within this year.
by Bishop Duleep de Chickera
A few days ago, a Buddhist monk and two Christian priests were beaten up opposite the official residence of the Prime Minister of the country. They were among 30 + peaceful protestors attacked by governing party goons. These same Christain priests, had just days before washed and kissed the feet of a representative group of protestors at GGG. The repetition of this act initiated by Jesus, demonstrates solidarity in an ardous journey, and conveys that just causes are served best when leaders understand their role as servants.
Strong traditions in all our religions, call religious representatives to advocate against corrupt, unjust and violent regimes and stand alongside people in their aspirations for truth and justice.But the assaulted three went further. Beginning with the wider protest at GGG, they had opted to move on to be with the more vulnerable group at the MGG. They thought their presence would mitigate the violent intentions of some. They were wrong.When a frenzied mob of several hundreds descended on the group, robes, whether saffron or white, made little difference. The three religious representatives, along with other protestors, were thrashed with poles and their tents set on fire. From MGG the mob moved on unchecked and unabated to continue the mayhem at GGG.This day-time brazeness had a stamp of authority. Minutes before the mob rushed in, some men were seen peering over the wall of the PM’s residence, as if in anticipation of what was to happen.
Sadly, the violent attacks on the MGG and GGG, spiralled into more violence as angry mobs took to the streets elsewhere. Deaths and injury to persons, and the burning and destruction of vehicles, houses and property are to be condemned as much as the initial attacks on peaceful protestors. Suddenly, it seemed that the integrity and momentum of an unbelievably peaceful protest, could be lost.
Active non-violent protest for change
But from within the smoke and ashes, the values and behaviour of peaceful protestors are rising to make a difference. Refusing to give in to intimidation or malice or hatred, these reprentatives of active, non-violent protest, point to a higher way forward. The integrity and momentum of peaceful protests can and must be sustained without recourse to arbitrary violence. The current wave of violence must therefore stop, not only for the sake of national stability; it must stop if peaceful regime transition is to occur.
This is why acccumulated anger over the years and contemporary frustration over corruption and the lack of essentials, however understandable, must be dealt with non-violently. Wise and integrated persons must make it their business to anticipate social violence and dissuade impetuous elements in their communities and neighbourhoods. The most recent initiative of some clergy and sisters, diffusing a tense situation in Negombo, confirms that this can be done.
The three religious representatives spent a couple of days after the incident, in hospital beds alongside each other. Here, these wounded healers had time to reflect on their experiences and the needs of a very seriously wounded nation. Rising from their beds they will return to the protest space, to reassure the nation of two realities.Friendships across religion and ethnicity more than anything else, will transform us into a just, safe and reconciled nation. And, when people rise above both intimidation and violence, peaceful, democratic protest will make the difference they long for. With peace and blessings to all.
OK. It was a mob who emerged from Temple Trees at around 12 noon on Monday that destroyed Mynagama and then proceeded to Gotagogama, where they vandalised tents and even burnt down the temporary library there. Completely peaceful, harmless background to a peaceful protest of decent people, until this group of beasts bent on maximum mayhem descended on Colombo, supposedly brought in about 25 buses whose number plates are being circulated. And did they come under their own steam of their own free will? Certainly not! They were transported to Colombo by the SLPP big guns with orders to wreak as much havoc as possible; stomachs filled with the usual free meals and stoked to rapaciousness by rotgut. Promises of jobs, etc., were made, it was said.
So, where does the blame lie for the anarchy that rocked Colombo and then infected other parts of the island? It lies with the then Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa. He then sends in his long overdue resignation to brother Gotabaya, the President, after causing untold immediate and future damage to the entire country. He and others who incited violence have to stand trial in the courts of justice for this colossal crime.
Mahinda, who was once hailed as the man who won the war, willfully wreaked havoc on Colombo. This was dastardly, diabolical, disastrous, direly detrimental and demented. Just before obeying the order probably conveyed by your brother, you decided to inflict maximum harm on the country and its people.
Mahinda Rajapaksa, you have outdone that mad President of the US – Donald Trump. Let’s recall what he did.
Defeated in the elections, after many demanded recounts, Trump declared the election was rigged and thus he was the rightful winner. On 06 January 2021, he made a public speech inciting his Republican hooligans to attack the Capitol. A mob of around 2,500 supporters disrupted the joint session of Congress assembled to count electoral votes and declare President–elect Joe Biden’s victory.
The beefy hooligans invaded the Capitol. It was locked and lawmakers and staff were evacuated, but much damage was done – property was vandalised and premises were occupied for several hours. Five deaths occurred; many injured including 138 police officers. Four officers who responded to the attack committed suicide within seven months. Named ‘Save America Rally’ Trump repeated false claims of election irregularities and said: “If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country.” The Republican mob erected gallows to hang VP Mike Pence and vandalised and looted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s offices.
Cassandra resumes her Cry after a sad night of great sorrow for all sufferers, particularly the anti-government peaceful protesters. Her heart goes to those hospitalised.
Cass wondered whether to send what she had written above as a letter to her Ed as she feared it would all be old hat/stale news by Friday May 13, when her chat is printed in The Island. She however decided to hold her Cry horses and continue her writing to fill her column on Friday 13th – inauspicious day with the conjunction of 13 and Friday. Must ask Gnana Akka whether this fact is accepted in her form of occultism – her belief in the existence of secret, mysterious or supernatural agencies which she claims she can bend to serve her purposes. Along the grapevine crept the rumour she had chanted over gallons of water which was distributed to those at Gotagogama. Will be hard to locate her at this juncture.
Comparison of hooliganism in Washington and Colombo
Both inciters of incidents are crazy and were utterly selfish, overblown with hubris and nakedly wicked. They lost politically so they wanted to leave the capital of the US and, in our case, the entire island, in chaos with murder, arson and turmoil. While Trump went it alone, Mahinda R had Johnston not only swearing allegiance to his master and wanting him to remain as PM but inciting those they had paid and gathered to go forth and destroy.
In the US, the security officers moved in fast, even before the actual assault started and took immediate safety measures. All condemn our police because though on duty just next door to Temple Trees, and having pre-info on the meeting at PM’s abode, only a couple of police officers ran halfheartedly behind the rampaging mob, actually giving them a huge head start.
And who caught the marauders? Not the police. It was the peaceful protesters in Gotagogama that caught them and doused a few in the Beira. Pity the water was not deep enough to drown them. Other anti-govt protestors and angered civilians stopped buses and hauled out Mahinda men.
Mercifully, powerful bodies like the Bar Association and HR Commission will see that justice is metered out. Will we go two steps beyond the US? Trump is still free though he has a case pending; will our Man be netted in for murderous crimes? He should be.
In the US only the Capitol building was entered and vandalised and perchance a few scattered incidents occurred. Here, the damage was extreme and almost island-wide. The State lost much in damaged govt vehicles et al. No chance now for Johnston and Co to rebuild mansions with govt money.
Trump had to lump it and retire to his holiday resort to lick his wounds. Not so our Man. He had no Medamulana old house to go to. He was holed up at Temple Trees with, they said, some of the ex-Ministers. But he has escaped to the security of the Naval headquarters in Trinco, as suspected by peaceful protestors over there.
The clout and prominence enjoyed by daughter Ivana Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner diminished. (Incidentally, they are supposed to have earned by foul means $ 649 m during the four years of Trump’s presidency. Another similarity between them and ours.) Our Man’s fate will be worse than Trump’s. His later clinging to power was to pass it on to son and heir Namal.
Bong Bong has come to power in the Philippines, one generation after his father was hounded out for his corruption and unconcern for the country. It will not happen in this country though its people are well-noted for their short memories. The horrid taste and gruesome memories left by Mahinda R will see the end of that family, either withering exiled elsewhere – OK living in luxury; or holed up here with plenty wealth but no way of enjoying it. Not even that grandson will rule Sri Lanka even if his father is the first Sri Lankan to shoot himself to outer space – the great PhD rocket scientist!
Cass has to email her Cry to her Editor today. She heard the notice that the armed forces would be out and shoot on sight looters and arsonists. Gotagogama continues to be occupied. The Prez is in his seat. Buddhist monks, Christian clergy and other religious leaders are out there calming and restraining people under the leadership of the Mahanayakes and Ven Omalpe Sobhitha Thera and His Eminence Malcolm Cardinal Ranjit. May the country subside. May an all-party interim government be formed soon and the new PM and Cabinet of 15 move to solve the multitudinous problems that beset Sri Lanka and its people. Cass whispers that if the Rs are out completely and an honest set of leaders are in place, other countries will come to our assistance.
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